Economic Outlook for the Day
The European session is expected to be relatively quiet, with only a few low-tier releases scheduled. The German PPI and trade balance for Switzerland and Spain are among the few announcements, but none of these are expected to have a significant impact on the market or the respective central banks.
US Employment Report Takes Center Stage
In contrast, the American session is likely to be more eventful, with the September US NFP report and US Jobless Claims taking center stage. The NFP is expected to come in at 50K, up from 22K in the previous month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected to remain steady at 3.7%, with the M/M figure also expected to hold at 0.3%.
Why the Old News Still Matters
Although this data may seem outdated, it could still have an impact on the market, given that the next NFP report will not be released until December 16, after the December FOMC meeting. As a result, the December cut probabilities have fallen to just 25% following the update from the BLS.
Jobless Claims Data
In addition to the NFP report, the most recent Jobless Claims data will also be released, which may be more significant. The Initial Claims are expected to come in at 230K, while the Continuing Claims are forecast to reach 1951K.
Central Bank Speakers
Several central bank speakers are scheduled to speak today, including:
- Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter in 2026) at 13:45 GMT/08:45 ET
- Fed’s Cook (neutral – voter) at 16:00 GMT/11:00 ET
- BoE’s Dhingra (dove – voter) at 18:30 GMT/13:30 ET
- Fed’s Goolsbee (neutral – voter) at 18:40 GMT/13:40 ET
Conclusion
In conclusion, today’s economic calendar is relatively light, but the US employment report and Jobless Claims data could still have a significant impact on the market. The central bank speakers may also provide some insight into the future direction of monetary policy. As always, investors will be closely watching these announcements to gauge their potential impact on the economy and financial markets. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
