Introduction to Canada’s Labour Market
Canada’s labour market has been a topic of interest in recent times, with the country’s unemployment rate and employment changes being closely watched by economists and investors alike. The latest report from Statistics Canada has revealed some interesting trends, which are discussed in this article.
Unemployment Rate Edges Lower
The unemployment rate in Canada edged lower to 6.5% in November, which is lower than what markets were expecting. This decrease is a positive sign for the country’s economy, indicating that more people are finding employment. The employment rate increased by 53.6K jobs, adding to the significant jump of 66.6K jobs registered in October.
Market Reaction
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has maintained its positive bias following the publication of the jobs report, dragging USD/CAD to the 1.3900 region. This is a significant development, as it indicates that the CAD is strengthening against the US Dollar. The participation rate has nudged down from 65.3% to 65.1%, and wages are still growing at a 4.0% annual pace, unchanged from the previous month.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The Canadian Dollar has been performing well against other major currencies. The table below shows the percentage change of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies. The CAD was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
Currency Prices Table
| Currency | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | – | -0.04% | -0.14% | 0.06% | -0.34% | -0.42% | -0.24% | -0.05% |
| EUR | 0.04% | – | -0.11% | 0.09% | -0.30% | -0.38% | -0.20% | -0.01% |
| GBP | 0.14% | 0.11% | – | 0.19% | -0.19% | -0.27% | -0.09% | 0.10% |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.19% | – | -0.38% | -0.47% | -0.30% | -0.10% |
| CAD | 0.34% | 0.30% | 0.19% | 0.38% | – | -0.09% | 0.09% | 0.30% |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.38% | 0.27% | 0.47% | 0.09% | – | 0.18% | 0.37% |
| NZD | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.30% | -0.09% | -0.18% | – | 0.19% |
| CHF | 0.05% | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.10% | -0.30% | -0.37% | -0.19% | – |
What to Expect from the Next Canadian Unemployment Rate Print
The consensus among market participants projects a slight rise in Canada’s Unemployment Rate to 7% last month, up from October’s 6.9%. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add no jobs in November, reversing October’s 66.6K increase. According to analysts at TD Securities, the November jobs report will provide the main risk for events this week, with TD and the market looking for the labour market to give back some recent strength as the unemployment rate edges higher to 7.0%.
Impact on USD/CAD
USD/CAD has been on a steady decline almost entirely to the tune of the US Dollar (USD) lately, and that story is still all about the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger print could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a quick lift, but don’t expect fireworks. The technical setup still leans toward further losses if spot manages to clear its key 200-day SMA at 1.3913.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the latest labour market report from Statistics Canada has revealed a decrease in the unemployment rate and an increase in employment. The Canadian Dollar has maintained its positive bias, and the market is expecting a slight rise in the unemployment rate in the next print. The impact on USD/CAD will depend on various factors, including the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve. Overall, the labour market in Canada is showing positive signs, and investors will be closely watching the next report to see if this trend continues.
