Economic Calendar Reveals Crucial GDP and Inflation Data
The economic calendar has revealed crucial GDP and inflation data, which could have a significant impact on the markets. The final revision of Q3 2025 GDP is expected to show growth at 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q2. This data carries substantial weight for markets already positioning for year-end moves.
Key Facts About the Economic Calendar
Some key facts about the economic calendar include:
- Q3 2025 GDP is expected to show growth at 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q2.
- The previous quarter’s 3.8% growth marked the strongest performance since Q3 2023.
- The Santa Claus Rally averages a 1.3% gain since 1950 over the last five trading days of the year.
- Today is the final key data release before the early market close on Wednesday at 1:00 PM EST.
Economic Calendar Delivers Critical GDP Revision
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the final revision of Q3 2025 GDP this morning at 8:30 AM EST. Economists forecast growth of 3.2%, which would mark a slowdown from the robust 3.8% pace recorded in the second quarter. This data is critical for markets already positioning for year-end moves.
PCE Inflation Report Signals Rate Cut Expectations
Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index was closely monitored by the Federal Reserve’s inflation tracking. The Fed watches this metric more intently than CPI inflation for policy decisions. A reading at or below expectations strengthens the narrative for potential rate cuts in 2026.
Market Catalysts Turn on Economic Data Quality
Data quality becomes critical now that trading volume is predicted to be extremely thin ahead of the Christmas holiday. Thin volume amplifies price swings—sharp moves can happen without major news. Today’s economic releases provide the main catalyst for directional movement before the market’s early close on Wednesday and full closure on Thursday.
Santa Claus Rally Momentum Depends on Today’s Data Strength
The historic Santa Claus Rally phenomenon officially begins on Wednesday, December 24, and runs through the first two trading days of January. This seasonal pattern has generated average gains of 1.3% since 1950 over those seven trading days. Some years deliver even stronger performance—historically averaging 1.6% when considering data back to 1928.
What Does Solid Economic Data Mean for Your Portfolio This Week?
If today’s GDP and inflation readings come in strong, expect the Santa Claus Rally to accelerate heading into Wednesday’s early close. Solid growth confirms the economy avoided recession, supporting equity valuations. Below-forecast inflation validates expectations for future rate cuts, benefiting growth and technology sectors significantly.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the economic calendar has revealed crucial GDP and inflation data, which could have a significant impact on the markets. The final revision of Q3 2025 GDP is expected to show growth at 3.2%, down from 3.8% in Q2. The Santa Claus Rally momentum depends on today’s data strength, and solid economic data could mean a strong finish to the year for investors. However, weak data could trigger profit-taking before the holiday break closes out the year. Investors should prepare for volatility around 8:30 AM EST when the GDP report hits the wires and 10:00 AM EST when Consumer Confidence data arrives.
