Introduction to the Problem with CPI Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been facing issues with collecting and reporting accurate Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Due to a lapse in appropriations, the BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025, and as a result, the data for that month is missing. Furthermore, the data for November 2025 is also incomplete, with the BLS attempting to fill in the gaps by approximating missing data points.
Understanding the Impact of Missing Data
The missing data for October and the partially made-up data for November have significant implications for the accuracy of the CPI. The Owners Equivalent Rent (OER), which accounts for 26% of the overall CPI, 33% of core CPI, and 44% of core services CPI, had a suspicious outlier-plunge in September. This plunge was carried forward to October and November, making the data for these months unreliable.
How the BLS Dealt with the Missing Data
The BLS explained that it used nonsurvey data sources to make index calculations for a few indexes. However, for most indexes, the BLS relied on survey data, which was not available for October. To calculate the November indexes, the BLS compared November 2025 prices with October 2025 prices, but since October prices don’t exist in the data, the BLS carried forward the September data. Essentially, the BLS made up the October data, which was then used as a base for the November data.
The Consequences of Doctored Data
The doctored OER data has been at an annualized rate of 1.6% for the past three months, compared to an average of 4.1% in the six months before the doctored September data. This sudden plunge of 2.4 percentage points is not reflective of the actual economic situation. The consequences of this doctored data are far-reaching, affecting not only the CPI but also other economic indices, such as the calculation of inflation protection in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and Social Security COLAs.
Broader Economic Implications
The inaccurate CPI data also impacts broader economic data that is adjusted to inflation, including real consumer spending and real GDP. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which produces these overall economic indices, uses some of the CPI data, including OER, for its calculation of the PCE price index and the GDP deflator. As a result, investors and beneficiaries will be underpaid for inflation, and inflation-adjusted economic data will be inflated, which suits the administration’s narrative.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the missing and partially made-up CPI data for October and November, combined with the doctored OER data, have serious implications for the accuracy of economic indices and the calculation of inflation protection. The BLS’s methods for dealing with missing data have raised concerns about the reliability of the CPI, and it is essential to address these issues to ensure that economic data accurately reflects the economic situation. The consequences of inaccurate data can have far-reaching effects on investors, beneficiaries, and the broader economy, emphasizing the need for transparency and accuracy in economic data collection and reporting.
