Central Bank Decisions and Economic Releases
The upcoming week is expected to be a significant one for the financial markets, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference taking center stage. In addition to the Fed, three other central banks – the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan – will also be announcing their policy decisions. Markets will be closely watching these events for signals on the future policy path.
Weekly Schedule
Here’s a breakdown of the key events scheduled for the week:
Monday
- China will release its activity data, including retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment for August. This data will be closely watched for signs of property sector weakness and overall growth momentum.
Tuesday
- The UK will release its jobs report, which is expected to show steady unemployment at 4.7%. Wage growth will also be a focus, with claimant count expected to be 20.3 K versus -6.2 K last month.
- Germany will release its ZEW survey, which provides an outlook on economic sentiment. The estimate is 26.4 versus 34.7 last month.
- Canada will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show easing headline inflation. This data will shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
- The US will release its retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.1% month-over-month increase, with autos weaker but core spending resilient.
Wednesday
- The FOMC will meet to decide on interest rates, with a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.00-4.25% expected. The Fed will also publish its updated economic projections, which will provide insight into its expectations for the future.
- The Bank of Canada will also meet to decide on interest rates, with a 25 basis point cut to 2.5% expected. The labor market and tariffs will be key focuses.
- New Zealand will release its GDP data for the second quarter, which is expected to show weak momentum.
Thursday
- The Bank of England will meet to decide on interest rates, with no change expected. The bank is expected to keep its Bank Rate at 4.0%, with a near-99% chance of no change.
Friday
- The Bank of Japan will meet to decide on interest rates, with no change expected. The bank is expected to keep its rates at 0.5%, although political shifts raise uncertainty around the timing of normalization.
- The UK will release its retail sales data for August, which is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with core steady at 0.5%.
- Quad witching, or the expiry of options and futures contracts, may boost market volatility.
Conclusion
The upcoming week is expected to be a significant one for the financial markets, with several key central bank decisions and economic releases scheduled. The FOMC rate decision and Chair Powell’s press conference will be closely watched for signals on the future policy path. The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will also be announcing their policy decisions, which will provide insight into their expectations for the future. Investors should be prepared for potential market volatility, particularly on Friday with the quad witching event.
