White House Touts Employment Figures
The White House on Tuesday touted the latest employment figures as a sign of a “strong, American First economy,” highlighting gains in the private sector.
Job Growth in the Private Sector
Private-sector businesses have indeed driven job growth this year while public sector employment has declined – entirely because of steep federal workforce cuts by the Trump administration. From January through November, the US economy added 499,000 jobs: The private sector added 687,000 jobs and the government (federal, state and local) shed 188,000 jobs. According to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, “Since President (Donald) Trump took office, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — exactly where it should be.”
Pace of Job Growth
However, the pace of job growth has fallen off: The year-to-date employment gains – overall and private-sector – are the weakest since 2020 and, before that, the Great Recession. This decline in job growth rate is a significant indicator of the current state of the economy.
Attribution of Job Growth
Additionally, it’s impossible to attribute the monthly employment gains reported widely from the jobs report to any particular nativity or documentation status – labor force and demographic statistics are drawn from an entirely different survey than the monthly payroll numbers. The White House is relying on datasets – employment levels for native-born and foreign-born workers – that are not designed for those estimations, economists such as Jed Kolko have noted.
Limitations of Employment Data
The estimated nativity numbers are drawn entirely from responses to a survey with a small sample size. Additionally, the broader employment levels are adjusted annually to align with Census population estimates; as such, the resulting numbers have to add up to the predetermined population controls. This limitation affects the accuracy of the data and its interpretation.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the White House highlights the gains in the private sector as a sign of a strong economy, the pace of job growth has fallen off, and the attribution of job growth to specific groups is limited by the available data. It is essential to consider these factors when evaluating the current state of the economy and making informed decisions about economic policies.
