Overview of Upcoming Economic Events
This week is packed with significant economic events, both locally and internationally. In Australia, the key release is the August jobs figures, while globally, central banks are set to make crucial interest rate decisions.
Australian Economic Events
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the August labour force figures on Thursday. The consensus forecast is for around 20,000 new jobs, similar to July’s result. If the participation rate remains steady, the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. However, the ABS’s rotation of its sample may cause it to tick higher. Additionally, the ABS will release its Q1 national, state, and territory population update.
Population Growth in Australia
According to the CBA economics team, Australia’s population rose by 0.3% in Q4 2024 to reach 27.4 million people. The annual growth rate softened to 1.7%. The team noted that population growth continued to normalize in the quarter, with easing in both the rate of natural increase and net overseas migration. Net overseas migration (NOM) has trended down since its record peak in Q3 2023 post-COVID. In Q1 2025, NOM is likely to be impacted by recent federal government policy aimed at containing international student numbers.
International Economic Events
This week is all about central banks and interest rate settings. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is the big one, with an expected 25bp cut, although a 50bp cut is a live, if unlikely, option. The Bank of Canada is also expected to make a 25bp cut, while the Bank of England is expected to hold fire due to high inflation and rising wages. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold at 0.5%, with the next move likely to be a hike rather than a cut.
Key International Events
Other key international events include:
- China releasing its retail sales, industrial production, and infrastructure investment data for August
- The US releasing its retail sales, import/export prices, and industrial production data for August
- The UK releasing its labour market data for August
Conclusion
In conclusion, this week is crucial for the global economy, with central banks making key interest rate decisions. In Australia, the August jobs figures and population update will provide valuable insights into the country’s economic performance. As the world waits with bated breath for the US Fed’s decision, one thing is certain – the upcoming events will have a significant impact on the global economy.
