Introduction to Monetary Policy
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to face a widening policy divide at its next meeting, scheduled for February 23-24, 2026. As pressure mounts for a shift toward monetary easing, signals from the market and within the committee suggest that the five members who previously voted for a rate cut may gain stronger backing.
MPC Meeting Calendar for 2026
The CBN has published the MPC meeting calendar for 2026 on its website, outlining five meetings that will shape the direction of monetary policy in the year ahead. The meetings are scheduled as follows:
- 304th MPC meeting: February 23-24
- 305th meeting: May 19-20
- 306th meeting: July 20-21
- 307th meeting: September 21-22
- 308th meeting: November 23-24
Division Within the MPC
At its November 2025 meeting, the MPC was sharply divided, with five members voting for a 50 basis point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.50 percent, while six members, including the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), voted to hold the rate at 27.00 percent due to lingering inflationary and exchange rate risks.
Arguments for Rate Cut
Proponents of easing argue that monetary tightening has reached its peak and that the economy requires calibrated relief to support growth without undermining price stability. MPC members, including Aku Pauline Odinkemelu, Aloysius Uche Ordu, Bandele A. G. Amoo, Lamido Abubakar Yuguda, and Murtala Sabo Sagagi, supported a rate cut, citing evolving domestic and global conditions.
Arguments for Holding the Rate
In contrast, the majority bloc argued for holding the MPR at 27.00 percent to consolidate the gains of earlier tightening. Members, including Bala Moh’d Bello MoN, Emem Usoro, Lydia Shehu Jafiya, Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, Philip Ikeazor, and Olayemi Cardoso, voted to retain all policy parameters, emphasizing the importance of consistency and supporting a hold on the MPR alongside existing Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and liquidity requirements.
Analysts’ Views
Analysts, including Tilewa Adebajo, chief executive officer of CFG Advisory, and those at FBNQuest, support a rate cut to provide the stimulus needed to unlock growth. They expect official inflation to move into single digits by the end of the second quarter (Q2) and urge the government to articulate and implement deliberate disinflation and growth policies.
Conclusion
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee faces a crucial decision at its next meeting, with the policy divide expected to widen. As the economy requires calibrated relief to support growth without undermining price stability, the committee must weigh the arguments for a rate cut against those for holding the rate. Ultimately, the decision will shape the direction of monetary policy in 2026 and impact the country’s economic growth and stability.
