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Can China pass on-the-ground tests to ace its economic report card in 2025’s second half?

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Economic Growth vs Reality

The Chinese government recently announced a better-than-expected growth rate of 5.3 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter. This suggests that China’s economy is resilient and can withstand various challenges, including a trade war with the United States. However, for many individuals like Justin Li, a 36-year-old accountant in Chengdu, the reality is different.

The Struggle is Real

Justin Li has not received a raise in five years, and his monthly salary of 7,000 yuan (US$975) is barely enough to make ends meet. With a wife, mother, and one-year-old daughter to support, Li’s dream of buying a home seems more distant than ever. The current job market is weak, and the threat of layoffs is real. Li is not alone in his struggles, and many others are feeling the disconnect between the robust headline economic figures and their day-to-day reality.

Beneath the Surface

While the GDP growth rate may look promising, there are risks lurking beneath the surface. Sluggish consumer confidence, persistent deflationary pressure, a protracted property slump, and trade uncertainty are all contributing to concerns of a second-half slowdown. Despite the government’s efforts to boost the economy, many are calling for stronger policy support to address these underlying issues. Li’s situation is a prime example of how the economic growth is not trickling down to the average citizen.

A Different World

According to Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, there is a need to distinguish between official economic data and how households and businesses actually feel. The reality on the ground is often different from the rosy data presented in official reports. Li’s struggles and the struggles of many others like him are a testament to this disconnect. As Chen Zhiwu put it, "What people are feeling is a different world from the rosy data in the first half."

Conclusion

In conclusion, while China’s economic growth may look promising on paper, the reality for many individuals is far from rosy. The struggles of Justin Li and many others like him highlight the need for stronger policy support to address the underlying issues in the economy. Until the benefits of economic growth trickle down to the average citizen, the disconnect between the headline figures and the day-to-day reality will continue to be felt. It is essential for the government to acknowledge this disconnect and take steps to address the concerns of its citizens, ensuring that the economic growth is inclusive and benefits all segments of society.

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