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CNB preview: Sailing in neutral gear with stable rates

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Introduction to Europe’s Labour Productivity Issue

Europe’s economies have been facing a significant problem for a long time: labour productivity is either stagnant or only growing at a mediocre pace. This issue affects the overall performance of these economies and can have far-reaching consequences.

Understanding the Causes

There are several factors contributing to this situation. One major part of the problem lies in structural growth hurdles. These include the lack of a comprehensive energy strategy that could ensure affordable energy prices for both households and industry. An overly complex and dense regulatory framework also plays a role, as it drives up costs for European businesses compared to their foreign competitors. Moreover, the inability to protect the European market effectively against unfair production and trade practices further exacerbates the issue.

The Role of Negative Real Interest Rates

However, another critical aspect that we believe significantly contributes to this problem is the prevalence of negative real interest rates. Negative real interest rates are when the interest rates on loans or savings are lower than the rate of inflation, meaning that the purchasing power of the money borrowed or saved decreases over time. These rates do not encourage businesses to improve their efficiency, adopt best practices, or innovate. Instead, they have a counterproductive effect.

Impact on Businesses and Economy

Negative real interest rates tend to support inefficient companies, often referred to as ‘zombie’ firms, which would otherwise fail due to their inability to compete. By keeping these firms alive, negative real interest rates block labour and other production factors from being reallocated to more productive and innovative sectors. This misallocation of resources hinders the overall growth and competitiveness of the European economies. Furthermore, negative real interest rates can also encourage fiscal irresponsibility, as governments may be tempted to borrow more, expecting that the low rates will keep their debt servicing costs manageable, regardless of the long-term consequences.

Considering the Consequences

The combination of structural hurdles and the effects of negative real interest rates creates a challenging environment for European economies to thrive. It is essential to address both aspects to stimulate meaningful labour productivity gains. This involves not only reforming the regulatory environment and protecting the market but also reevaluating monetary policies to encourage efficiency, innovation, and responsible fiscal management.

Conclusion

In conclusion, European economies face a dual challenge in overcoming the barriers to labour productivity growth. While structural reforms are crucial, it is equally important to reassess the impact of negative real interest rates on the economy. By addressing these challenges, European economies can work towards creating an environment that fosters innovation, efficiency, and sustainable growth, ultimately leading to improved labour productivity and a stronger economic future.

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