Economic Outlook for Türkiye
Fitch Ratings, one of the three major international credit rating agencies, has released a report projecting the economic outlook for Türkiye. According to the report, inflation in Türkiye is expected to ease to 28% by the end of 2025, while the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.5%. This growth rate is in line with the government’s Medium-Term Program estimates.
Inflation and GDP Growth
The report estimates that Türkiye’s inflation will further ease to 21% by the end of 2026, with economic growth remaining at 3.5%. For 2027, the agency projects a growth rate of 4.2%. As of the latest data, Türkiye’s inflation rose to 33.29% in September, while the year-on-year GDP growth rate was recorded at 4.8% in the second quarter of 2025.
Fitch’s Projections for Türkiye’s Economy
Fitch added that Türkiye’s real interest rate, which is the policy rate adjusted for inflation, is forecast to fall to around 3% by the end of 2026. The agency noted that policy easing could occur before the 2027 general elections, but it does not anticipate a return to deeply negative real interest rates, which previously weighed on investor confidence and price stability. The real interest rate in Türkiye currently stands at around 7% as of September.
Exchange Rate and External Position
The credit rating agency also projected the U.S. dollar to Turkish lira (USD/TRY) exchange rate to be 53 by the end of 2027, implying a continued but gradual depreciation of the lira in line with domestic inflation differentials. Furthermore, the report highlighted Türkiye’s gross international reserves, which rose to $184 billion at the end of September, and noted improved external balance conditions and steady inflows through tourism, exports, and foreign investment.
Record Surplus and Foreign Investment
Türkiye recorded a $5.5 billion current account surplus in August, the highest on record, while foreign direct investment (FDI) rose to $15.6 billion year-on-year. Fitch said this improvement underscores the economic board’s success in maintaining access to foreign financing amid tighter global conditions.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Fitch’s report provides a positive outlook for Türkiye’s economy, with projected inflation and GDP growth rates indicating a stable economy. However, the agency notes that the country’s economic outlook will depend largely on the government’s ability to sustain monetary discipline, strengthen investor confidence, and navigate external pressures tied to global commodity prices and capital flows. With a stable outlook and a current credit rating of "BB negative," Türkiye is poised for continued economic growth and development.
