Understanding the Graham Bill: Implications for Russia and the US

Introduction to the Graham Bill

The Graham bill, also known as the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, is a significant piece of legislation introduced by Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill aims to impose severe sanctions on Russia in response to its aggression against Ukraine. The goal is to pressure Russia into ending its aggression and engaging in genuine peace negotiations.

Key Provisions of the Bill

The bill introduces a wide range of direct and indirect restrictions on Russia. Some of the key provisions include:
– Asset freezes and bans on transactions for Russian officials, military personnel, oligarchs, and others who support the armed forces.
– Sanctions on key banks such as the Central Bank of Russia, Sberbank, and Gazprombank.
– Prohibition on US institutions from conducting transactions with Russia and restrictions on Russian entities from listing securities on US stock exchanges.
– Ban on the export of energy products from the US to Russia and prohibition on investments in the Russian energy sector.
– Introduction of secondary sanctions against foreign companies that support resource extraction in Russia, including in the oil, gas, and uranium sectors.
– Significant trade restrictions, including 500% tariffs on all Russian-origin goods and services, particularly energy products.
– Introduction of secondary 500% trade tariffs on countries that knowingly sell, supply, transfer, or purchase Russian-origin oil, natural gas, uranium, petroleum products, or petrochemicals.

Why the Bill Has Not Yet Been Passed

Despite having the backing of 85 out of 100 senators, the bill’s passage has been delayed. Senator Graham waited for informal approval from the US President and made trips to Ukraine and Europe to coordinate positions with US allies. Progress on the bill emerged after Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Putin’s actions, leading to an agreement between Graham and the US President, with some points in the bill being softened.

Room for Maneuver for Trump

The revised version of the bill includes provisions that give the US President greater flexibility in dealing with Russia. These include:
– The requirement for the President to make a formal determination that Russia is either unwilling to move toward a peace agreement or is violating existing agreements before implementing sanctions.
– The introduction of a presidential waiver, allowing Trump to delay the implementation of the 500% tariffs for 180 days, with the option for a second postponement subject to congressional approval.
– The ability for the US President to exempt certain countries, goods, or services from the tariffs on national security grounds.
– Exemptions for specific items, such as humanitarian aid and activities related to US intelligence operations, aimed at reducing resistance from some Republicans and the Trump administration.

Conclusion

The Graham bill represents a significant escalation in sanctions against Russia, aimed at pressuring the Kremlin into ending its aggression against Ukraine. While the bill has not yet been passed due to political calculations and the need for flexibility for the US President, its implications are far-reaching. The bill’s fate, currently pending revision and potential vote before Congress’s August recess, will be closely watched as it has the potential to significantly impact US-Russia relations and global geopolitical dynamics.