Jobs Report Delayed Due to Government Shutdown
The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, originally scheduled for release, will likely be delayed due to the government shutdown, which has entered its third day. This has left economists, investors, and policymakers searching for alternative sources to fill the gap.
Alternative Sources for Jobs Data
Several alternative sources are helping to fill the gap left by the delayed jobs report. Payroll processor ADP estimates that private payrolls shrank in September. Job-posting site Indeed produces an alternative to the BLS’s job-openings report. Additionally, newcomer Revelio Labs uses figures from networking platforms to provide readings on measures including employment, salaries, hiring, and attrition.
Hints of a Productivity Revival
The broadest measure of economic output, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, grew at a rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta model. However, employment and hours worked barely grew in the three months through August. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is a productivity boom, which could be driven by technology, particularly generative artificial intelligence.
Bank of Japan to Raise Interest Rates
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank remains committed to further interest-rate increases. He noted that real interest rates are at significantly low levels and reiterated that the bank will raise rates if the economy and prices align with its projections.
US Economy News
President Trump is considering providing at least $10 billion in aid to US farmers, who are warning of economic fallout from his tariffs. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the government shutdown could weaken the economy, potentially leading to a hit to GDP, growth, and working Americans.
Entertainment and Luxury Housing Markets
The entertainment industry is experiencing a downward spiral, with work evaporating, businesses closing, and longtime residents leaving. Additionally, the luxury housing market is starting to crack, with the number of luxury-home sales nationwide dropping 0.7% during the three months ended August 31.
Financial Regulation
Fair Isaac is shaking up the credit-scoring industry by giving mortgage lenders a way to get its credit scores without buying them from Experian, Equifax, or TransUnion.
Conclusion
The delayed jobs report has left a gap in the market, which is being filled by alternative sources. While these sources provide some insight into the labor market, they are not a substitute for the official jobs report. The US economy is facing several challenges, including the government shutdown, tariffs, and a potential productivity boom driven by technology. As the situation continues to evolve, it will be important to monitor these alternative sources and official data to gain a better understanding of the economy’s trajectory.
