Introduction to Bitcoin Price Alert
December CPI and Real Earnings data releases are set to drop at 8:30 AM ET today. This release is crucial as Bitcoin holds $92,000 following the recent clash between the Fed and the DOJ. During this clash, Chair Powell made a rare appearance to the press, calling out President Donald Trump.
Expected CPI and Core CPI
Headline CPI is expected at 0.3% monthly and 2.7% year-over-year, which is unchanged from November. Core CPI is forecast at 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually, up from 2.6%. Any upside surprise would validate current Powell’s caution about sticky inflation and cement the "higher for longer" narrative that sent Bitcoin tumbling from $101,000 to $92,000 after last week’s Fed decision.
Real Earnings Data
Real Earnings data will show whether wage gains adjusted for inflation continue to support consumer spending. November data showed 0.8% annual growth, which are modest gains that suggest workers aren’t keeping pace with price increases. Analysts warn that data distortions from the government shutdown continue affecting December’s report, with shutdown-related disruptions creating artificially low baselines for goods and rental prices in November.
Impact on Bitcoin
The timing is critical as markets also digest ongoing geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainty that could pressure inflation higher through 2026. With Fed rate cut odds for January 28-29 sitting near zero and March looking increasingly uncertain, today’s inflation print could either provide relief if it comes in softer than expected or reinforce the hawkish pivot if it shows acceleration. Bitcoin’s technical setup remains under pressure with support critical at $88,000-$90,000 and resistance at $98,000.
Market Reaction
The total crypto market cap sits at $3.23 trillion as traders await clarity on whether the Fed made a policy error by signaling fewer cuts or correctly assessed that inflation remains too sticky to ease aggressively. Strong CPI above 2.7% YoY would likely pressure Bitcoin toward $88,000, while a surprise downside miss below 2.5% could spark a relief rally back toward $98,000-$100,000. Real Earnings data matters because sustained negative real wage growth historically precedes consumer spending weakness and recession, which would be bullish for rate cuts but bearish for economic growth.
Conclusion
Markets are essentially trading the impossible balance: hoping for inflation cool enough to justify cuts, but growth strong enough to avoid recession. The crypto market reaction will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin’s price. As the Fed’s hawkish stance is put to the test, investors will be watching closely to see how the market reacts to the CPI and Real Earnings data. Will Bitcoin’s price be pressured toward $88,000 or will it spark a relief rally back toward $98,000-$100,000? Only time will tell.
