Introduction to Kalshi Market
The Kalshi market has seen significant activity over the last 24 hours, especially in the "Will there be a recession in 2025?" market. This market has reported a volume of 20,585, making it one of the most popular on the platform.
What the Market Implies
The current market implies a 13% chance of a recession, which is unchanged from yesterday’s probability. This means that the market believes there is a relatively low possibility of a recession occurring in 2025.
Resolving the Market
For the market to resolve to "Yes", there must be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This clear condition helps participants understand what they are betting on.
Market Performance
Since its opening on August 05, 2024! this market has seen a total volume of 3,254,948 transactions. Additionally, there are currently 583,553 positions of open interest, and the overall liquidity is at 19,477,948 contracts.
Top Markets on Kalshi
Based on recent tracking, the following are the top 10 finance and politics markets by volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will there be a recession in 2025?
- Other finance-related markets also saw significant activity.
Conclusion
The Kalshi market for a potential recession in 2025 continues to draw interest, with a notable volume over the last 24 hours. Participants are closely watching the economic indicators, and the market’s implied probability reflects the current sentiment. As the market matures and more data becomes available, the likelihood of a recession will continue to evolve, making this a market to watch in the coming months.
