Poland’s Economic Growth
Poland’s economy has shown a significant increase in growth, outpacing other countries in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region and the European Union (EU) as a whole. According to the latest flash estimate, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the growth rates of Czechia (2.7%) and Hungary (0.6%), as well as the EU average (1.5%).
Factors Contributing to Growth
A low reference base from the previous year partially explains the substantial increase in the annual growth rate. This is due to the subdued economic activity in September 2024, when the country experienced severe flooding. However, seasonally adjusted data indicates that the pace of expansion remained solid, at 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), consistent with the rate observed in the second quarter of 2025.
Sector Performance
While the detailed GDP report, including its composition, is scheduled for release on December 1, preliminary data suggests an improvement in industry compared to the second quarter of 2025. Retail trade saw a slightly slower annual increase, and the construction sector continued to experience a recession. The services sector is estimated to have remained in good shape, supporting GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, although the growth was not as strong as anticipated.
Expenditure Side
From the expenditure side, GDP growth was driven by buoyant household consumption, which likely expanded at a similar annual rate as in the previous quarter. However, the expected rebound in investment activity has been delayed. This delay can be attributed to the slow implementation of domestic Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) financed projects and the necessary revisions to these projects.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Poland’s economy demonstrated a notable increase in growth in the third quarter of 2025, outperforming other CEE countries and the EU average. The growth was supported by household consumption and an improvement in industry, despite a slower increase in retail trade and a continued recession in construction. While the services sector remained in good shape, its growth was not as strong as hoped. The delay in investment activity rebound is a concern, highlighting the need for more efficient implementation of RRF projects to support sustained economic growth.
