Introduction to Today’s Economic Calendar in Asia
The economic and event calendar in Asia today, Tuesday, December 23, 2025, is nearly empty, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) December meeting minutes being the main event. These minutes are due to be released at 0030 GMT / 1930 US Eastern time.
What to Expect from the RBA Minutes
A preview of what seems likely from these minutes has been posted, highlighting several key points. The RBA minutes are likely to reinforce that the easing phase is over, with policy now in an extended pause rather than moving toward rate cuts. The Board is expected to emphasize growing discomfort with inflation, noting signs of a broader-based pick-up and upside risks despite caution around the new monthly CPI series.
Key Points from the RBA Minutes
- Inflation Concerns: The Board is expected to discuss inflation risks in detail, acknowledging a renewed and potentially broader-based pick-up.
- Activity and Labour Market: The minutes should underline that momentum in private demand has been stronger than anticipated, supported by consumption, investment, and renewed strength in housing activity and prices. Labour-market conditions are framed as a source of upside risk to inflation, with low underutilization, elevated capacity-utilization measures, and continued labour shortages.
- Governor Bullock’s Press Conference: Her remarks suggest the minutes will confirm that the Board did not consider a rate hike in December but discussed scenarios for further tightening. The emphasis on meeting-by-meeting decision-making and caution around reacting to single data points is likely to be reflected in the minutes.
- Market Implications: Markets will be alert for language signaling that if inflation fails to slow convincingly, renewed tightening could come back onto the agenda as early as the February meeting.
Detailed Analysis of the RBA Minutes
When the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its December meeting, markets will be looking to gauge how close the Board is to re-opening the door to tighter policy. The meeting resulted in the cash rate being held at 3.60%, but the accompanying statement and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference struck a noticeably firmer tone than in recent months.
Emphasis on Inflation Risks
The minutes are expected to show a detailed discussion around inflation risks, with the Board acknowledging that while inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peak, recent data point to a renewed and potentially broader-based pick-up. Members are likely to reiterate caution around interpreting the new monthly CPI series but also note that some of the recent strength may prove persistent and therefore warrants close monitoring.
Activity, Labour Market, and Financial Conditions
On activity, the minutes should underline that momentum in private demand has been stronger than anticipated, supported by both consumption and investment, alongside renewed strength in housing activity and prices. This backdrop, combined with easier financial conditions earlier in the year and policy lags still flowing through, is likely to be framed as a source of upside risk to inflation rather than reassurance. Labour-market discussion in the minutes is likely to echo the statement’s message: conditions have eased modestly, but remain “a little tight,” with emphasis on low underutilization, elevated capacity-utilization measures, and continued labour shortages reported by firms.
Market Lens
For markets, the key risk is that the minutes read as more uncomfortable with inflation than the statement alone implied, reinforcing the idea of an extended pause with a live tightening option should inflation fail to slow convincingly into early 2025. This could potentially lead to a reevaluation of rate hike expectations and impact market sentiments.
Bonus: Economist Outlooks
Following the December meeting, several major banks updated their outlooks for RBA policy. Some forecasts predict rate hikes soon, while others broadly converge on the view that the easing phase is over for now but do not project renewed tightening. These varied outlooks reflect the uncertainty and the data-dependent nature of the RBA’s decision-making process.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the RBA December meeting minutes are anticipated to reinforce the notion that the easing phase has ended, with policy now in a holding pattern and a tightening bias. The focus on inflation risks, activity, and labour market conditions will provide crucial insights into the Board’s thinking and potential future actions. As markets await these minutes, the key takeaway will be how the RBA’s stance might influence future policy decisions and what this means for the economy and financial markets in the coming months.
