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Stablecoins, dollar dominance and India’s strategic dilemma

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Introduction to Stablecoins

The US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act on July 17, marking a significant moment in the evolution of digital finance. While the law is seen as a milestone in the global digital currency revolution, several countries have received it with caution. In India, RBI Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar warned that stablecoins could undermine the fundamentals of the regulated banking system, suggesting that Indian policymakers view stablecoins as a potential systemic disruptor.

What Are Stablecoins?

Stablecoins occupy a grey zone between sovereign money and private cryptocurrencies. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, which have no backing, stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies and supported by reserves. This hybrid nature complicates regulation. The US decision to prohibit a central bank digital currency (CBDC) while promoting privately issued, dollar-pegged stablecoins presents a paradox, especially when countries like India and China are pursuing sovereign digital currencies.

Characteristics of Stablecoins

A stablecoin is a digital asset designed to function as a medium of exchange while maintaining price stability by being pegged to a fiat currency, such as the US dollar. Unlike bank money, which exists on centralized ledgers overseen by banks and central banks, stablecoins are usually issued by private entities, often technology firms. The stablecoin market is dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC, both of which claim to be backed one-to-one by dollars or highly liquid dollar-denominated assets.

Why Stablecoins Gained Traction

The roots of cryptocurrencies lie in the 2008 global financial crisis, which exposed deep vulnerabilities in the banking system. Bitcoin was conceived as an alternative form of money – decentralized, trust-minimized, and independent of central banks. Stablecoins emerged later to address crypto’s Achilles’ heel: price volatility. By combining blockchain efficiency with relative price stability, stablecoins enable 24×7 settlement, bypass cumbersome banking procedures, and significantly reduce transaction costs, particularly for cross-border payments.

Use Cases for Stablecoins

Stablecoins are especially popular among migrant workers and diasporas. In economies facing currency instability, such as Argentina and Türkiye, dollar-pegged stablecoins are increasingly used as a hedge against inflation and capital controls. Another growing use case is collateralization. Because stablecoins can be quickly liquidated, they are becoming attractive collateral in private lending markets. A borrower holding stablecoins presents a lower perceived risk, expanding credit access outside the formal banking system.

Structural Fault Lines in the Monetary System

Currency issuance has traditionally been a sovereign function. Fiat money derives legitimacy from state backing, regulatory oversight, and the principle of singleness – the assurance that all money in an economy ultimately settles in central bank money at par value. This principle underpins trust, financial stability, and seamless commerce. Stablecoins disrupt this architecture. Although pegged to fiat currencies, they lack sovereign guarantees.

Risks Associated with Stablecoins

Under the GENIUS Act, stablecoin issuers are explicitly prohibited from paying interest or yield to holders. More critically, there is no deposit insurance or explicit bailout mechanism. In the event of issuer insolvency, stablecoin holders are treated as unsecured creditors and must seek recovery through insolvency proceedings. This creates a fundamental asymmetry: stablecoins resemble money in daily use, but not in protection. A widespread loss of confidence in a major stablecoin could therefore trigger runs and contagion without the safety nets that underpin traditional banking.

The Strategic Logic Behind US Stablecoin Policy

The US has historical experience with private currencies prior to the establishment of the Federal Reserve – an era marked by instability and fragmentation. The revival of privately issued currency today is therefore not accidental. Stablecoins act as a counterweight to de-dollarization, creating renewed demand for US Treasury assets. Stablecoin issuers become structural buyers of US government debt, currently exceeding USD 37 trillion.

Implications for Global Economy

Stablecoins allow the US to outpace global CBDC initiatives. While many sovereign digital currency projects remain experimental, US-based stablecoins already enjoy massive network effects. Early dominance could marginalize foreign CBDCs before they reach scale. Furthermore, the expansion of privately issued stablecoins may facilitate alternative payment channels for sanctioned jurisdictions, effectively allowing private crypto markets to bypass formal US sanctions regimes.

What India Should Do

India must engage with stablecoins pragmatically rather than ideologically. A clear regulatory framework – similar in scope but not in intent to the GENIUS Act – is essential to protect national interests while enabling innovation.

Key Policy Priorities

Key policy priorities should include:

  1. Regulating private stablecoins with strong safeguards against money laundering, terrorism financing, and consumer harm.
  2. Leveraging UPI with blockchain infrastructure, allowing India’s dominant digital payments ecosystem to evolve rather than be disrupted.
  3. Accelerating rupee-backed stablecoins, such as Asset Reserve Certificates (ARCs), designed to coexist with the RBI’s CBDC.
  4. Building indigenous blockchain infrastructure to avoid dependence on Western-dominated crypto ecosystems.

Conclusion

Stablecoins are not merely a financial innovation – they are a geopolitical instrument reshaping monetary power, capital flows, and regulatory authority. For India, the choice is stark: lead, adapt, or follow. Strategic agility, regulatory foresight, and indigenous innovation will determine whether India becomes a rule-maker or a rule-taker in the emerging digital financial order. If India aspires to shape, rather than react to, the future of money, the time to act is now.

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