Introduction to DI Rates
The rates of DI (interbank deposit rate) ended the day with stability, reflecting the low liquidity environment typical of the end of the year. This stability was also influenced by the absence of major triggers in both domestic and foreign markets. The movement occurred amid the release of relevant data on the fiscal deficit, expectations for the IPCA inflation rate, and the behavior of US Treasuries, which helped guide investors’ decisions.
DI Rates Movement
At the start of the session, future interest rates showed little volatility. The DI maturing in January 2028 ended the day at 13.18%, slightly above the previous adjustment of 13.16%. The contract for January 2035 reached 13.64%, practically in line with the 13.65% observed in the previous session. Therefore, even with reduced trading volume, the market remained cautious and avoided more abrupt movements.
DI Rates Reflect Year-End Scenario
The behavior of DI rates was directly linked to the slower pace of trading. With investors adjusting positions and reducing exposure before the end of the year, the yield curve remained virtually sideways. Still, analysts point out that stability does not mean an absence of concern. On the contrary, the market remains attentive to fiscal and inflationary fundamentals, which continue to be the main drivers of DI contract pricing throughout 2025.
Higher-Than-Expected Fiscal Deficit
Despite the calm prices, the economic agenda provided relevant information. The National Treasury reported that the central government recorded a primary fiscal deficit of R$ 20.172 billion in November. The figure came in above market expectations, which projected a shortfall of around R$ 13.5 billion, according to a Reuters survey. In a press conference following the release of the report, the Treasury Secretary stated that the primary surplus for 2025 should remain closer to the center of the goal than to the ground. The statement helped to contain a more negative reaction in future interest rates, signaling a commitment to the fiscal framework.
IPCA Inflation on Downward Trajectory
Another relevant point for future interest rates came from the release of the Focus survey. The survey showed that economists have reduced their estimate for the IPCA inflation rate in 2025 for the seventh consecutive week, from 4.33% to 4.32%. Furthermore, the projection for 2026 also showed a decline for the sixth consecutive week, with the median falling to 4.05%, compared to 4.06% the previous week. These figures reinforce the perception of a gradual slowdown in inflation, which tends to ease pressure on interest rate futures, especially at the longer ends of the curve.
Future Interest Rates Follow US Treasuries
In the international arena, US Treasuries exerted additional influence on domestic interest rate futures. US Treasury yields fell throughout the day as investors awaited the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting. At around 4:43 PM, the yield on the global benchmark 10-year Treasury bond for investment decisions fell by about two basis points, to 4.116%. This movement helped to limit upward pressure on DI rates, since the Brazilian yield curve tends to react to variations in international interest rates.
Outlook for DI Rates
With this, the market ends the year maintaining a defensive stance. The combination of a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit, a gradual slowdown in IPCA inflation, and the behavior of US Treasuries will continue to determine the direction of future interest rates in the coming sessions. Meanwhile, experts believe the short-term trend is toward continued stability, at least until new fiscal or inflationary data, or clearer signals from US monetary policy, bring greater volatility.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the DI rates reflect the year-end scenario, with stability being the key characteristic due to low liquidity and the absence of major market triggers. The fiscal deficit, IPCA inflation rate, and US Treasuries are the main factors influencing DI rates. As the market enters the new year, it remains cautious, awaiting clearer signals on fiscal policy, inflation, and international interest rates to determine the direction of future interest rates. The balance between fiscal risk, inflation, and the external environment will continue to be crucial in shaping the outlook for DI rates.
