Introduction to Turkish Politics
A Turkish court is set to decide on Monday whether to oust the head of the main opposition, in what some see as a test of the country’s shaky balance between democracy and autocracy. The decision comes after a nearly year-long legal crackdown on the party, which has eroded the leadership ranks of the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The centrist CHP is currently neck-and-neck with President Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamic-rooted, conservative AK party (AKP) in the polls.
The Crackdown on the Opposition
Hundreds of members of the CHP have been jailed pending trial in a sprawling probe into alleged corruption and terrorism links. Among them is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is President Erdogan’s main political rival. The crackdown has sharpened concerns over what critics call Turkey’s autocratic slide, in which the courts, media, military, central bank, and other formerly independent institutions have bent to Erdogan’s will over his 22-year reign.
The Rise of Ozgur Ozel
The scrappy, hoarse-voiced leader of the CHP, Ozgur Ozel, has risen to prominence since Imamoglu’s detention. After headlining several dozen big anti-Erdogan street rallies this year, Ozel has emerged as the president’s next biggest rival. His political future is at stake in Monday’s ruling, when an Ankara court will decide whether to overturn the CHP’s congress in 2023 over alleged procedural irregularities. If the court does, Ozel would be stripped of the CHP chairmanship he won at the meeting.
Possible Outcomes
The court could then name a trustee to run the party, or reinstate former chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who Erdogan defeated in 2023 elections. It could also delay a ruling. Kilicdaroglu has lost the trust of many CHP members who criticize his almost complete silence throughout the crackdown and see him as having grown close to Erdogan, accusations he denies.
Boost for Erdogan?
A ruling to oust Ozel as CHP leader could throw the opposition into further disarray and infighting, boosting Erdogan’s chances of extending his rule. The CHP, the party of modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, denies all of the allegations it faces as unfounded and politically motivated. Erdogan’s government rejects this and says the judiciary is independent and needs time to sort through the tangle of CHP corruption.
‘Judicial Coup’
The first CHP arrests began last October, and when Imamoglu was detained in March, the lira and Turkish assets plunged, forcing the central bank to reverse a rate-cutting cycle. Markets fell again two weeks ago when a court ordered the removal of the party’s Istanbul provincial head over alleged irregularities in a separate congress vote. The Istanbul ruling led to a dramatic police siege of the city’s CHP headquarters, and efforts by lawmakers to block them with tables and chairs.
Conclusion
The upcoming court decision has significant implications for the future of Turkish politics. If the court rules against Ozel, it could lead to a collapse of the multi-party system in Turkey. The CHP has already called for an extraordinary congress on September 21 to re-elect Ozel, and he has said that he would remain in the party’s Ankara headquarters, even if the court rules against him. The situation is being closely watched, and the outcome will have a major impact on the balance of power in Turkey.
