Introduction to Türkiye’s 2026 Economic Agenda
Türkiye enters 2026 with a slew of economic announcements, including export targets, inflation data, and the government’s planned disinflation measures. The country’s main economic goals for the new year are sustainable growth and disinflation, while also focusing on hosting international trade events.
Economic Overview
The country has made significant progress in reducing inflation, which stood at 64-65% at the end of 2022 and 2023, but fell to 44.4% at the end of 2024. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also decreased to 31.07% in November 2025, reaching its lowest point in the last four years. The Statistical bureau, TurkStat, is set to announce the December inflation rate on January 5.
Declining Inflation and Record Trade Expectations
Türkiye’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 expects the inflation rate to hover around 28.5% in 2025 and fall to around 16% in 2026. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that supportive global financial conditions, moderate commodity prices, tight monetary and fiscal policy, enhanced financial stability, and accelerating improvements in expectations will propel the disinflation process further. Şimşek also said that the new year will see a further decline in inflation.
Sustainable Growth Targets
Besides disinflation, Türkiye will continue its efforts to reach its sustainable growth targets in 2026. The Turkish economy grew 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. The growth rate for the fourth quarter and the entire 2025 will be announced on March 2. The economy grew 3.3% in 2024, and the expected rate for 2025 is 3.3%, and 3.8% in 2026, in line with Medium-Term Program targets.
Monetary Policy Meetings
The Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) of Türkiye’s Central Bank (TCMB) lowered the one-week repo auction interest rate from 39.5% to 38% on December 11, 2025, marking the last meeting of the year. The committee will hold the first meeting of 2026 on January 22 to make its monetary policy decision. Inflation reports by the central bank are also likely to take center stage in money markets.
Credit Ratings, Trade Diplomacy, and Events
Türkiye’s credit rating announcements by international agencies will be one of the prominent economic agenda items in 2026. Moody’s has upgraded Türkiye’s credit rating by three notches since May 2023, and the S&P and Fitch Ratings by two notches. Fitch and Moody’s will make the first credit rating assessment of 2026 on January 23, and the S&P is expected to announce its findings on April 17. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s international visits this year to develop trade and relations will also be featured intensively on the economic agenda.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Türkiye’s economic agenda for 2026 is focused on sustainable growth, disinflation, and trade diplomacy. With a decline in inflation and a growth rate of 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025, the country is on track to meet its economic goals. The upcoming monetary policy meetings, credit rating assessments, and international trade events will play a crucial role in shaping Türkiye’s economic future. As the country continues to make progress in reducing inflation and increasing growth, it is likely to become a more attractive destination for foreign investment and trade.
