Introduction to Vietnam’s Stock Market
The VN-Index is expected to reach approximately 2,040 points in 2026 under its base-case scenario, according to ACB Securities (ACBS). By the end of 2025, the VN-Index had risen by 40.87 per cent year-to-date. However, the rally was largely driven by stocks within the Vingroup ecosystem, with limited breadth across the broader market.
Market Performance and Valuation
The VN-Index ended the year trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 17.3x. Excluding the impact of Vingroup stocks, the VN-Index valuation declines to 14.6x, which is an attractive valuation range for medium- to long-term investment. Global equity markets were affected by tariff negotiations, persistent inflation, and central bank interest-rate policies, with gold emerging as the best-performing asset due to concerns over geopolitical risks and rising sovereign debt levels.
Global Economic Outlook
Countries have increasingly turned to expansionary fiscal measures as an alternative policy tool, given the limited remaining room for central banks to cut interest rates in 2026. The global growth outlook for 2026 points to a slight deceleration in GDP growth to 2.9 per cent from 3 per cent in 2025. However, the key downside risk lies in weakening consumer confidence across most economies, which has continued to decline since mid-2025. At the same time, financial system liquidity is beginning to show signs of tightening, while geopolitical risks are on the rise.
Vietnam’s Economic Growth
Despite mounting challenges following the tariff shock and severe flooding and natural disasters in Q4 2025, Vietnam reported GDP growth of 8.02 per cent in 2025. The GDP growth target for the 2026–2030 period is set at 10 per cent. Growth momentum is expected to be driven by domestic fundamentals – through institutional, legal, and administrative reforms, alongside a stronger role for the private sector – while continuing to leverage traditional strengths such as exports and foreign investment.
Equity Market Trends
Last year was a pivotal one for Vietnam’s equity market, highlighted by its provisional upgrade to FTSE secondary emerging market status. With the upgrade not due until after September, foreign investors continued to post net selling in Vietnam’s equity market during 2025, amounting to VND124 trillion (approximately $4.8 billion). This trend was broadly consistent across Southeast Asian equity markets in 2025. Nevertheless, this trend is expected to reverse in 2026, supported by the market upgrade event and a positive VND–USD interest rate differential.
Forecast and Recommendations
ACBS forecasts that net profit after tax of companies under its coverage will grow by 14 per cent on-year in 2026 (vs 21.1 per cent in 2025). Under the base-case scenario, ACBS decomposes the VN-Index into two components. The VN-Index excluding Vingroup stocks is expected to continue trading in line with its five-year median P/E, while the rally in VIC-related stocks is unlikely to be sustained in 2026. This scenario implies a VN-Index level of approximately 2,040 points this year. ACBS’ 2026 strategic portfolio prioritises sector leaders in banking, retail, residential real estate, and public investment.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Vietnam’s stock market is expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by domestic fundamentals and a positive outlook for the economy. The VN-Index is forecasted to reach 2,040 points, with sector leaders in banking, retail, residential real estate, and public investment being the top picks for investors. With the market upgrade event and a positive VND–USD interest rate differential, foreign investors are expected to return to the market, supporting the growth of the VN-Index. Overall, 2026 is expected to be a promising year for Vietnam’s stock market, with opportunities for investors to benefit from the country’s economic growth and development.
