US Government Shutdown Ends, Data Blackout to be Lifted
The US government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, has finally come to an end. As a result, the data blackout that accompanied the shutdown is expected to be lifted soon. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis will likely publish updated release schedules at the start of the week. However, it is unclear when the delayed data will start rolling in.
Initial Release Schedule
The November jobs report may be the first to be released, possibly as early as the end of next week, since the data was already compiled before the government shutdown. The same applies to the October jobs report, which was prioritized by the BLS and released in late October.
Risk of No October Data
However, there are doubts about the October data. The BLS may decide to forgo both the October payrolls and inflation figures to focus on the November data. This decision could be made to avoid delays in the November data release. Additionally, it may be challenging for the BLS to collect data for the October CPI and unemployment rate, which is calculated from the household survey, since the month has already elapsed.
Growing List of Overdue Releases
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of several key publications, including the initial jobless claims, delayed October retail sales, and Q3 GDP reports. Any complications in the resumption of these publications could impact expectations of Fed rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar may go into consolidation rather than extending its pullback in the coming week.
Fed Minutes and Flash PMIs
The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index are scheduled for release on Monday and Thursday, respectively. S&P Global’s flash PMIs for November will be released on Friday and will be closely watched to fill in the gaps in the economic data. The minutes of the Fed’s October policy meeting will also be released, which may provide insight into the Fed’s future rate decisions.
International Economic Data
Across the pond, the UK’s CPI data for October will be released, which may influence the Bank of England’s decision to cut rates in December. The euro area’s flash PMIs will also be released, which are unlikely to change the European Central Bank’s rate outlook. In Canada, the CPI data for October will be released, which may impact the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut rates further.
Japan’s Economic Data
In Japan, the GDP growth data for Q3 will be released, which is forecast to show a contraction of 0.6% q/q. The core CPI data for October will also be released, which is projected to have edged up to 3.0% y/y. Other releases, such as machinery orders and trade data, will also be watched closely.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the end of the US government shutdown and the impending release of delayed economic data will provide much-needed insight into the state of the economy. The release of international economic data, including the UK’s CPI, euro area’s flash PMIs, Canada’s CPI, and Japan’s GDP growth and core CPI, will also be closely watched. As the data starts to roll in, investors will be able to make more informed decisions about the future direction of interest rates and the overall health of the economy.
