Saturday, October 4, 2025
HomeInflation & Recession WatchWhy the latest inflation data gives investors a reason to smile

Why the latest inflation data gives investors a reason to smile

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The Big Story: A Best-Case Scenario

Not too hot, not too cold — this was just right. The latest inflation report struck a good balance, delivering a best-case scenario for the stock market. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq rose over 1% and the Dow spiked nearly 500 points. US stock futures are continuing the climb this morning.

The consumer price index rose 2.7% year-over-year in July, below economists’ expectations of 2.8%. The figures may seem marginal, but for markets, this was the sweet spot. That’s largely because it was likely low enough to allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates at its September meeting. At the same time, the inflation reading was high enough to ease recession fears that had flared after the disappointing July jobs report.

Markets: What’s Coming Next

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows markets seeing 92% odds the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points next month, up from about 80% on Monday. Higher odds are also now being priced in for cuts in October and December. For Trump, rate cuts can’t come soon enough. "Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell must NOW lower the rate. Steve ‘Manouychin’ really gave me a ‘beauty’ when he pushed this loser. The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable."

3 Things in Markets

  1. America’s Biggest Bank is About to Open its New Headquarters: JPMorgan Chase’s new 60-story skyscraper at 270 Park Avenue is full of high-end perks and amenities. The building includes a "state-of-the-art" gym — which the bank said employees will have to pay a membership fee to access — an Irish pub, AI tech systems, and more.
  2. A September Showdown May be Looming: Day traders outperformed professional money managers this summer, but their dominance might not last long. A historically seasonal pullback in retail trading and other headwinds threaten to upend the summer-long rally.
  3. Trump’s Pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief Suggested Pausing US Jobs Reports: E.J. Antoni, Trump’s nominee and chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, floated the idea on Fox News Digital earlier this month, citing accuracy concerns. Economists and market strategists told BI that such a move would be damaging for investors and economic planners.

3 Things in Tech

  1. Microsoft Has Meta AI Talent in its Sights: The software giant has a list of its most-wanted researchers and engineers from Meta and has already begun offering multimillion-dollar pay packages, documents viewed by BI’s Ashley Stewart reveal. It’s a step to compete with the eye-popping comp Microsoft’s rivals are offering in the AI talent wars.
  2. AI Coding Startups Have an Inference Whale Problem: Anthropic and Cursor are facing surging costs from a handful of heavy users, which is eating into their business models. As a result, they’re introducing tiers or rate limits to what was formerly a basic fixed-price monthly subscription plan.
  3. Baconator with a Side of AI?: Michael Chorey, the executive responsible for building out the AI automation for Wendy’s drive-thru, which he says can take orders faster than a human in a headset, is leaving after five years. Chorey exclusively told BI that he is joining Presto, a tech company developing AI-first drive-thrus, which he believes is the next era of fast-food hospitality.

3 Things in Business

  1. To Solve the Housing Crisis, Think Outside the Bounds: Outside the city bounds, that is. Ned Resnikoff argues that connecting cities, towns, and suburbs into large regional governances would make it easier and cheaper to buy a home in the US. Taxes from exclusive enclaves, like Greenwich, Connecticut, or Sausalito, California, would help support nearby cities.
  2. Taylor Swift is in her Boyfriend Era: The pop star hard-launched the title of her newest album, "The Life of a Showgirl," in a teaser clip of her boyfriend Travis Kelce’s podcast. It signals a shift in her marketing strategy, where she’s putting her S.O. and her relationship front and center.
  3. You’ve Heard of Quiet Quitting, Now Get Ready for Quiet Cracking: The latest threat to worker engagement is quiet cracking, in which people show up to work and do their jobs but still feel dissatisfied. Some of the warning signs can look like less extreme symptoms of burnout, EY’s chief well-being officer told BI.

Conclusion

The latest inflation report has given investors a reason to feel upbeat about what’s coming next. With the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates in September, the markets may be entering a brighter phase. However, day traders’ summer dominance could be hit with a September chill, and Trump’s pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics chief has suggested pausing US jobs reports. Meanwhile, Microsoft is poaching Meta’s AI talent, and Taylor Swift is shifting her marketing strategy to focus on her relationship. As the markets continue to evolve, it’s essential to stay informed and adapt to the changing landscape.

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